Méditations: We Called It First!

From the Toronto Star this morning: Also see this.

Liberals within range of majority
SUSAN DELACOURTOTTAWA BUREAU CHIEFOTTAWA—The federal Liberals are within striking distance of majority government, according to a new Toronto Star poll.

But it's a shaky strength built on disenchantment with the Conservatives and a public that's "listless" and scandal-fatigued.

The poll, conducted by EKOS Research Associates, shows the Liberals at 40.2 per cent support nationally, up from the 36.7 per cent they obtained in last June's election.

The increase seems to be coming at the expense of the Conservatives, whose national support slipped back to 26.5 per cent — found mostly in its old, traditional constituencies and farther away from the centrist mainstream. The Conservatives received 29.6 per cent of the vote in the 2004 federal election.

EKOS president Frank Graves describes the electorate generally as "listless" and "fractured" — words that have also been used to characterize the type of minority government Prime Minister Paul Martin has been leading since last June.

With the federal budget coming Feb. 23, the public's appetite for social-program spending also continues to grow, the poll found. When EKOS asked whether the budget surplus should go to debt reduction, tax cuts or social-program investment, an overwhelming majority — 61 per cent — favoured social spending, compared with just 18 per cent worried about the debt and 19 per cent favouring tax cuts. This social-program bent of the electorate could also explain why the New Democrats are at 18.7 per cent, up three points since the last election, and at a heady 32 per cent support in British Columbia, Graves said. "Relatively, they have improved the most since the election," Graves said.

New Democrats, however, could also be benefiting from their strategic decision to steer clear of most attacks on the Liberals along ethical lines. NDP Leader Jack Layton rarely wades into the daily ethics fray between Liberals and Tories during question period in the Commons.
In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 46 per cent support, followed by 32 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP.

But in Quebec, the Liberals still trail the Bloc Québécois by 13 percentage points, with the separatist party at 45 per cent support. That makes it very difficult for Martin to win a majority government and suggests there will be no early election.

Graves said the public is wearying of the constant attention on alleged Liberal scandal, which has been dogging Martin's party and government, especially in Quebec.

It's not that voters don't care — the poll shows about 78 per cent of respondents were aware to some degree of the issues in front of the one-year-old commission of inquiry led by Justice John Gomery.

This is around the same as the 76-per-cent level of interest shown a year ago after the federal auditor general's bombshell report about the Liberal sponsorship program. Almost two-thirds of the respondents say they have adequate or "somewhat adequate" information by now to form a judgment. Graves reads this as scandal fatigue.

"It's a lot of storm and fury but it's not having much impact on things for Martin," Graves said.

"The biggest hazard would be for all those people wanting to flog the ethics issue all the way into an election campaign. ... People seem to have decided they've heard enough."

Martin capped the political portion of the inquiry's hearings last Thursday with his own appearance before the Gomery commission, which followed testimony from former prime minister Jean Chrétien.

The inquiry now moves to Montreal on Feb. 28 to investigate advertising-firm connections to the Liberal sponsorship program.

The poll was conducted through phone interviews with 1,046 Canadians 18 years of age and older, from Feb. 7 to 9. The results are considered accurate to within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Regional breakdowns have a higher margin of error.

Graves said he finds it odd the Conservatives' strength is so low in this latest poll. Given the lack of any enthusiasm for the Liberal government, one would assume, he said, that Tories would have more support.

But Graves believes it's a result of the same-sex marriage issue, on which Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has been playing mainly to the social conservatives.

"They've been retrenching back to their core constituencies," Graves said.

"But it means they're missing a chance to make gains at the political centre. ... It's very puzzling."

Still, the Conservatives are registering a reasonably healthy 32 per cent support in Ontario, far better than in Quebec, where Harper has been concentrating a lot of his attention, apparently to little effect so far. EKOS found only 8 per cent Conservative support in Quebec.

Graves said "an ethics focus in any looming election will probably kill that party's (the Tories) prospects in Quebec, where voters have no interest in further talk of sponsorship."

Ontario, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia are the regions of strongest support for the governing Liberals, and Alberta and Quebec are the areas where they are most overwhelmed by their opposition foes.