The Tories: Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don't

Ok, so one of the longest campaigns in Canadian history is finally over, the ballots are in, they've all been counted, except for those that were eaten in protest which by now have all been digested, and we have a new government. Congratulations to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives for winning enough seats to form a minority government.

So now everyone is commenting on what it all means. The last thing we need is more commentary from another blogger. So here goes....

Who were the winners?

Clearly, the Conservatives. As much as the Liberal vote collapsed from an inept campaign and excessive baggage (there's a mixed metaphor in there somewhere), the election was not just lost by the previous government. The Conservatives ran a skillful campaign, tailored their policies to suit the mood of the country and - this is important - somehow managed to give Quebecers a vehicle to express their concerns and desire for change within the federation. I'm still convinced this was more of a fluke than anything else. Quebecers are very good at smelling winners, but the Conservatives made it comfortable for them to pile on as they usually do. This is exactly what a "national" party should do.

But the Tories aren't the only winners. Given all that excess baggage carried around by the Liberals, finishing with more than 100 seats makes the Liberals winners too. Despite all the gaffes and shenanigans they had to explain, they still ended up with more seats than the Conservatives did last time round. Many observers were expecting to see the Liberals wiped off the map. In Québec, the Bloc even talked about sweeping the province and "making the Liberals disappear." Certainly, the Libs took a big hit in Québec, where the Gomery Commission played like a soap opera for months. But elsewhere, the Liberals hung on. Whoever is chosen to rebuild the Party now will not have to start from scratch as did the Tories after the 1993 election. We may see the Liberals back in the game sooner than many had predicted.

Who were the losers?

From my perspective, the only losers were ... the Bloc. The BQ was expected to sweep the province, taking a majority of the popular vote and gaining seats. Instead, their showing last night is signficantly less than what they managed to achieve in 2004. Less popular vote than last time, and two fewer seats. Still, they performed well. And had they perhaps not come out making all sorts of wild claims and plans and hopes for a BQ sweep, they would not today appear to have lost their momentum. It should be no surprise that, today, Gilles Duceppe, the BQ leader, is downplaying the vote, saying it has nothing to do with "sovereignty." All the ethnic breast beating over the last few months now seems pretty hollow.

So, what have we learned?

In Québec, we've learned that, given a credible alternative, voters are still keen to work with "federalist" parties. Not to discount the independence movement in Québec, support for the Bloc is, pretty clearly to me at least, still primarily a form of protest, except for a certain hard core. Even in those ridings where the Bloc won, a quick scan of last night's results shows that, in many cases, the "federalist" vote was split among the Liberals and the Conservatives, allowing the Bloc to win the seat by a relatively small margin. For referendum watchers, this is good news.

The next few months are critical for the Tories. They now need to deliver to Québec. Stephen (may I call you Stephen?), you better make things happen. Or you can expect to be escorted to the door quicker than you can say poutine.

And what if the Tories' promises to Québec are carried out? Well, unfortunately, Québec will then be back asking for more. And we'll start the game all over again. That's when the Tories will learn that Québec's demands are insatiable, and the whole stand off between Québec's "aspirations" and "English Canada's" alleged inflexibility will be renewed and confirmed.

So, in Québec, the Tories are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Welcome to the Prime Minister's Office, Stephen.

;-)

iank